Tuesday, August 18, 2009

82 Million iPhones in 2012?

We have long supported the consolidation of technology on a mobile and netbook. It makes sense as storage and computing power expands and technology shrinks and also costs tumble that tomorrow’s technology will consolidate on the mobile and netbook platforms. MacRumors.com reports on a study released by RBC Capital Markets that further supports this view placing smartphones at the core of the next wave of computing.

RBC believes that there will be different smartphone centres of interest dictated by usage and each with its own leader. They suggest Apple will head up the “media-centric” devices, RIM the “productivity-centric” business phone with other centres being based on “PIM-Centric” ( personal organization) and “cloud-centric” (social social-media/email0. We believe that they are wrong on there division and that these bands will not be so defined as they conclude. Phones will be phones and the only division will be on the economic bands not functionality.

RBC forecast that Apple's market share will rise from 10.8% to 16.3% in 2012. We believe that only the turnaround in fortune of the current incumbents, such as Nokia, or the take-up of Android threaten Apple today. One of Apple’s greatest strengths is their app store which will take some catching. This means that Apple's total mobile market share is predicted to rise from 1.1% (2008) to 5.7% in 2012, or 82 million iPhones on the market in 2012!

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