What do you believe will be the top ten ‘endangered gadgets’ that will need luck to survive the end of 2010?
Pixmania, the largest electronics retailer in Europe, has compiled a list of their top ten:
1. DVD players we think this a safe bet not so much threatened by Blu-ray as much as streaming services and access to video via PCs and other devices.
2. Fax machine we thought that had already long gone and was now sitting beside the telex
3. Analogue TV this isn’t even a fair bet as the government has effectively culled them
4. The landline phone we disagree with this as it assumes WiFi will take over land line broadband and it will not and when the phone is thrown in why reject it. Also there isn’t a mobile telephone directory so sorry we don’t agree here
5. Mobile phone charger. Well there may only be one that works on all devices but these aren’t quite dead yet
6. Wii-mote. Not being a Wii man its hard to judge this but the emergence of Microsoft's Project Natal which senses motions and tracks the gamer's movements, without the need for a control stick or wand could be the next novelty in this marketspace.
7. Sat Navs Smartphones versus Sat Nav? A bit simple so certainly looking in need of help to survive.
8. Dongle. The wiFi dongle will die as manufacturres build the function within the box. I’ll miss the stick but not the charges.
9. The computer mouse For the average Joe it already has disappeared and been replaced by the pad and ever increasingly popular touchscreen. Voice recognition will emerge once more and could and dominate but irrespective the mouse could still be around to support specialist who need precision or desktops and pad that need a mate
10. Chip and pin credit cards. This one contused us as these aren’t going anywhere in a hurry so sorry disagree here.
So what would our list be?
1. DVD players
2. Fax machines
3. Sat Navs
4. Dongles
5. 1st generation eBook greyscale only eInk readers. Sorry but black and white is only fit for retro nights and isn't going to switch on consumers once they see colour
6. The LG digital watch phone. Great novelty but just that
7. CD Players. Why have a player when it comes with every Netbook, notebook, laptop and streaming and digital is growing. 'click to get' more than 'download to but'
8. Dedicated Radios apart from the windup radio on the allotment why have more clutter
9. Non Flat Monitors desk top furniture such as this will be confined to old movies
10. Palm Pre Too many players and some has to go and we don't see them making the cut but there may be others too who are big today.
Good game why not try it at home!
Showing posts with label predicting the future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predicting the future. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Publishing in 2010: Part 3
Yesterday we look at some of the changes that are impacting publishing and posted our thoughts: Publishing in 2010: Part 2
Today we look at the two issues of, ‘Publication Date’ and ‘Digital Marketing’
3. Publication Date
Can consumers actually spot the difference between margarine and butter? Can they spot the difference between front list ‘new’ titles and older ones? Do the majority care about the publication date? Is new better than old? Do books have a ‘sell by date’?
The answer from the majority of consumers and readers is that the publication date is irrelevant, but the answer from the majority of publishers and resellers is that it is. This divide could once be managed by the control of the channel and the ‘sale or return’ practices that support front list promotion. However, the Internet and digital world throws this in the air and now millions of titles are available at a click. These can be digital titles, physical, print on demand, ebooks, whatever.
We once questioned the increasing volume of new titles published each year. The reality is that it will probably double within the next few years. It will not be just new works but include; old ones being revived by print on demand, digital works, a mass of public domain that were never previously ISBNed and an explosion of self published material. Let’s face it the virtual shelf is here.
Let’s also be honest, unless you are an ardent follower of an author, no one really cares about that date. The acid test is to go to any bookstore and watch the consumers when confronted with a range of Grisham, Connelly, King, whoever, I guarantee few turn to that front matter to read the publication date. If you are ever in New York go to my favourite bookstore, The Strand. Fred Bass sells used, new, remaindered, classics, rare and even reviewer copies, his offer reflects most peoples reading habits - eclectic.
We have seen Faber introduce its classics and many others such as Penguin, trawl the public domains, orphan works and their back lists in order to rediscover gems and yesterday’s winners. Good books are good books and the publication date means just that - the date of publication.
My father in law most famous work was turned into a film, which even on its second TV showing drew a 13 million audience. It won an EMMY, a BAFTA, a Peabody and was voted one of the all time Women’s Hour favourite books. It now sits out of print ‘reprint under consideration’. The logic being that it’s had it day, but some would suggest that it’s the publisher in that case that has had its day.
Why is this important today? The answer is simple, many publishers can now bring back previous works, dust down the jacket and take a low risk and cost option. Publishers will increasingly need to look backwards, sideward as well as forwards to find their revenue. Similarly resellers can break free of the merchandised shelves and offer a more eclectic proposition based on quality of selection not sale or return. Some will say that Google, Amazon and others see books they don’t always just see new books which now challenges many right across the publishing value chain.
4. Digital Marketing
Yesterday the AI sheet was thrown out like confetti at a wedding. Each publisher often had their own house style and the fax machines were often jammed with what some would call spam. Bibliographic records were so inaccurate that they spawned the ‘book in hand’ processes in all major wholesalers. Then Amazon promoted the jacket JPEG, which was followed by email distribution and a step change was incurred.
We were once told by a leading trade publisher that the majority of their marketing spend was to resellers and much was spent on those glossy adverts in the trade press. Some referred to it being akin to self abuse and playing to the gallery, but if the book wasn’t on the shelf it couldn’t be sold. The objective was to secure shelf space.
However, this has clearly started to change. The shelf is no longer just physical and the consumer can search and discover for themselves and choose where they buy separately. The challenge now is to be seen everywhere. Some may say that the digital haystack has just got bigger and being found as that ‘needle’ even harder.
We first had the digital ‘widget’, which came in all flavours sizes and rendered differently. Often the pages were not perfect and rigid rules applied, which often resulted in black pages being displayed as sample pages! We appeared to have lost our way and instead of focusing on the channel, publishers became overly obsessed with selling direct and to new yet to be established channels. The secondary publishers who provided the base metadata (bibliographic feeds) were floundering and often unable to respond and resellers found themselves once again with confetti...
The book is and always will be the best advert for itself so using it in a digital form to sell both physical and digital renditions makes sense. Google recognised this, Amazon recognised this, but all too often the publishers didn’t have it and when they did, it was only after the book had hit the streets. Again Amazon recognised this, but unfortunately the digital file had to wait for the printer and yesterday’s process to catch up.
When we talk about marketing, promotional and sales support materials we should be looking at the same source and the best basic source is not a marketing system, but the content system itself. This challenges and changes the process in which we develop content and is part of a greater debate. However, we need to think samples, viral marketing, review copies, inspection copies, gratis copies, catalogues, AI sheets and even the physical materials and recognise these should be driven from the same source, which is held digitally once and rendered many times and ways. It also needs to recognise marketing happened before, during and after production. If done correctly every click and also unturned page will be auditable.
Finally, digital marketing budgets have often been spread across publishing departments and not always tracked at title level. This certainly can change in this new digital world.
We will continue with Part 4 looking at Editorial and Production.
Today we look at the two issues of, ‘Publication Date’ and ‘Digital Marketing’
3. Publication Date
Can consumers actually spot the difference between margarine and butter? Can they spot the difference between front list ‘new’ titles and older ones? Do the majority care about the publication date? Is new better than old? Do books have a ‘sell by date’?
The answer from the majority of consumers and readers is that the publication date is irrelevant, but the answer from the majority of publishers and resellers is that it is. This divide could once be managed by the control of the channel and the ‘sale or return’ practices that support front list promotion. However, the Internet and digital world throws this in the air and now millions of titles are available at a click. These can be digital titles, physical, print on demand, ebooks, whatever.
We once questioned the increasing volume of new titles published each year. The reality is that it will probably double within the next few years. It will not be just new works but include; old ones being revived by print on demand, digital works, a mass of public domain that were never previously ISBNed and an explosion of self published material. Let’s face it the virtual shelf is here.
Let’s also be honest, unless you are an ardent follower of an author, no one really cares about that date. The acid test is to go to any bookstore and watch the consumers when confronted with a range of Grisham, Connelly, King, whoever, I guarantee few turn to that front matter to read the publication date. If you are ever in New York go to my favourite bookstore, The Strand. Fred Bass sells used, new, remaindered, classics, rare and even reviewer copies, his offer reflects most peoples reading habits - eclectic.
We have seen Faber introduce its classics and many others such as Penguin, trawl the public domains, orphan works and their back lists in order to rediscover gems and yesterday’s winners. Good books are good books and the publication date means just that - the date of publication.
My father in law most famous work was turned into a film, which even on its second TV showing drew a 13 million audience. It won an EMMY, a BAFTA, a Peabody and was voted one of the all time Women’s Hour favourite books. It now sits out of print ‘reprint under consideration’. The logic being that it’s had it day, but some would suggest that it’s the publisher in that case that has had its day.
Why is this important today? The answer is simple, many publishers can now bring back previous works, dust down the jacket and take a low risk and cost option. Publishers will increasingly need to look backwards, sideward as well as forwards to find their revenue. Similarly resellers can break free of the merchandised shelves and offer a more eclectic proposition based on quality of selection not sale or return. Some will say that Google, Amazon and others see books they don’t always just see new books which now challenges many right across the publishing value chain.
4. Digital Marketing
Yesterday the AI sheet was thrown out like confetti at a wedding. Each publisher often had their own house style and the fax machines were often jammed with what some would call spam. Bibliographic records were so inaccurate that they spawned the ‘book in hand’ processes in all major wholesalers. Then Amazon promoted the jacket JPEG, which was followed by email distribution and a step change was incurred.
We were once told by a leading trade publisher that the majority of their marketing spend was to resellers and much was spent on those glossy adverts in the trade press. Some referred to it being akin to self abuse and playing to the gallery, but if the book wasn’t on the shelf it couldn’t be sold. The objective was to secure shelf space.
However, this has clearly started to change. The shelf is no longer just physical and the consumer can search and discover for themselves and choose where they buy separately. The challenge now is to be seen everywhere. Some may say that the digital haystack has just got bigger and being found as that ‘needle’ even harder.
We first had the digital ‘widget’, which came in all flavours sizes and rendered differently. Often the pages were not perfect and rigid rules applied, which often resulted in black pages being displayed as sample pages! We appeared to have lost our way and instead of focusing on the channel, publishers became overly obsessed with selling direct and to new yet to be established channels. The secondary publishers who provided the base metadata (bibliographic feeds) were floundering and often unable to respond and resellers found themselves once again with confetti...
The book is and always will be the best advert for itself so using it in a digital form to sell both physical and digital renditions makes sense. Google recognised this, Amazon recognised this, but all too often the publishers didn’t have it and when they did, it was only after the book had hit the streets. Again Amazon recognised this, but unfortunately the digital file had to wait for the printer and yesterday’s process to catch up.
When we talk about marketing, promotional and sales support materials we should be looking at the same source and the best basic source is not a marketing system, but the content system itself. This challenges and changes the process in which we develop content and is part of a greater debate. However, we need to think samples, viral marketing, review copies, inspection copies, gratis copies, catalogues, AI sheets and even the physical materials and recognise these should be driven from the same source, which is held digitally once and rendered many times and ways. It also needs to recognise marketing happened before, during and after production. If done correctly every click and also unturned page will be auditable.
Finally, digital marketing budgets have often been spread across publishing departments and not always tracked at title level. This certainly can change in this new digital world.
We will continue with Part 4 looking at Editorial and Production.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Publishing in 2010: Part 2
Yesterday we started looking at the changes that are impacting publishing and posted our thoughts: Publishing in 2010: Part 1
Today we look at the two issue of, ‘Content on Demand’ and ‘Consolidation’
3. Content On Demand.
We are moving rapidly from a culture of ‘buy and wait’ to one of ‘click and get it’. This first started with the near instant gratification from the likes of Amazon, who re wrote customer service online and which has now been adopted by the use of mobiles and streaming of music and video.
In the print world we started with printing ‘just in case’ and that resulted in over production and waste and then moved in many areas to print on demand, or as it is often called ‘just in time’. This may not have been true ‘just in time’ but did reduce print runs for back lists, reduced the unpredictable reprints and to kept titles effectively in print. Some took bold steps to move the printing locally to the consumer and in doing so move from a ‘print and distribute’ to a ‘distribute and print’, but the reality today is that the price to do this is still to high and the model still unproven.
We now see digital offering digital downloads of video, audio and ebooks on demand and TV is also being streamed. YouTube has changed our taste and brought video to all. Importantly digital now offers the opportunity to store digital inventory once at source and deliver it locally direct to the consumer on requested. No more tying the transaction, information, customer relationship to the content, but effectively separating these and creating truly virtual and distributed inventories. In the case of publishing there is no reason why the content should ever leave the publisher’s warehouse until it is sold. He instantly knows what is sold. This shift changes relationships and often the publisher believes it offers a direct channel to the consumer. The reality is that it strengthens not weakens the existing channel and provides the opportunity for anyone to sell their titles. We often ask publishers how many trading partners they give their digital files to today and how many they think they will give them to tomorrow. Often we still see many continuing to hang on to the old ways and we still hear ‘my repository is bigger than yours’ schoolyard naïve bragging.
However, the greatest challenge and opportunity that content on demand offers, is the potential shift from outright ownership of a physical book or digital copy, to the licence to access a digital copy. If we look at music and the new digital streaming services, we see a rebalancing between the track to access and the tracks to own models. Consumers will still want to own, but may now want to own less and rent more.
We therefore need to watch the likes of the emerging Google models where their library and Editions models use the same content. We must watch the streaming services like Spotify and Google music who stream music today but could stream anything digital tomorrow.
Finally we need to recognise that the public libraries have real growth opportunities tomorrow. There are no longer restricted to the shelf space but to an unlimited virtual shelf consisting of everything ever published. However, this then raises the conflict between their rent for free model and the reseller’s purchase model.
Content on Demand is not just about delivery it’s about the total customer interaction, storage and service. Google have adopted a store once serve many ways approach and others a store anywhere and serve anywhere technology. What is clear is that the consumer now wants ‘click and get’ and that this impacts both physical and digital content.
4. Consolidation
Many predicted that the market would consolidate around the few and the others would be slowly suffocated out of the market. It could be resellers, wholesalers, publishers whoever, we have been brought up to believe big is good and big is the only way. This logic is not wrong and will continue to work. The economies of scale and scope will always rule but rather than killing the rest they are now facilitating ‘small is beautiful’ and ‘small works’.
Digital provides a level playing field. This however doesn’t mean that this is open to all, nor that all can succeed. What is clear is that those in the middle are most at risk. They can’t compete with the big, but have their profile. They also can’t compete with small, as they often have too much baggage and aren’t able to move and adapt swiftly to change. The other challenges is that we often assume big is as we knew it yesterday, it isn’t and often now about the size of new entrants. The new big is Google, Adobe, Sony, Apple. In accepting this we must also accept that the new small and the new middle will also change.
We have yet to see full vertical consolidation. The problem is that organisations often find it difficult to collaborate and work a vertical all too often we see many trying to compete with those they should be partnering with and partnering with those who they should be competing with. The vertical world is not always content centric and may consist of a number of content providers, who together make the vertical offer.
Horizontal consolidation has been happening for some time. We look at our high streets and see fewer general chains. We look at music and see virtually none. The challenge here is that these were the stores that often shifted a wide range of volume and once gone are often replaced with ones that shift a narrow range of volume. The independent bookstore can survive but not as a multi publisher franchise that is supported by sale or return.
Consolidation is impacting the channel, the range, the print run, the rights acquired and developed and everything from the author to the reader. This genie is out of the bottle and not going back so we must adapt and change to survive.
Next we will look at the mystical publication date and the marketing focus.
Today we look at the two issue of, ‘Content on Demand’ and ‘Consolidation’
3. Content On Demand.
We are moving rapidly from a culture of ‘buy and wait’ to one of ‘click and get it’. This first started with the near instant gratification from the likes of Amazon, who re wrote customer service online and which has now been adopted by the use of mobiles and streaming of music and video.
In the print world we started with printing ‘just in case’ and that resulted in over production and waste and then moved in many areas to print on demand, or as it is often called ‘just in time’. This may not have been true ‘just in time’ but did reduce print runs for back lists, reduced the unpredictable reprints and to kept titles effectively in print. Some took bold steps to move the printing locally to the consumer and in doing so move from a ‘print and distribute’ to a ‘distribute and print’, but the reality today is that the price to do this is still to high and the model still unproven.
We now see digital offering digital downloads of video, audio and ebooks on demand and TV is also being streamed. YouTube has changed our taste and brought video to all. Importantly digital now offers the opportunity to store digital inventory once at source and deliver it locally direct to the consumer on requested. No more tying the transaction, information, customer relationship to the content, but effectively separating these and creating truly virtual and distributed inventories. In the case of publishing there is no reason why the content should ever leave the publisher’s warehouse until it is sold. He instantly knows what is sold. This shift changes relationships and often the publisher believes it offers a direct channel to the consumer. The reality is that it strengthens not weakens the existing channel and provides the opportunity for anyone to sell their titles. We often ask publishers how many trading partners they give their digital files to today and how many they think they will give them to tomorrow. Often we still see many continuing to hang on to the old ways and we still hear ‘my repository is bigger than yours’ schoolyard naïve bragging.
However, the greatest challenge and opportunity that content on demand offers, is the potential shift from outright ownership of a physical book or digital copy, to the licence to access a digital copy. If we look at music and the new digital streaming services, we see a rebalancing between the track to access and the tracks to own models. Consumers will still want to own, but may now want to own less and rent more.
We therefore need to watch the likes of the emerging Google models where their library and Editions models use the same content. We must watch the streaming services like Spotify and Google music who stream music today but could stream anything digital tomorrow.
Finally we need to recognise that the public libraries have real growth opportunities tomorrow. There are no longer restricted to the shelf space but to an unlimited virtual shelf consisting of everything ever published. However, this then raises the conflict between their rent for free model and the reseller’s purchase model.
Content on Demand is not just about delivery it’s about the total customer interaction, storage and service. Google have adopted a store once serve many ways approach and others a store anywhere and serve anywhere technology. What is clear is that the consumer now wants ‘click and get’ and that this impacts both physical and digital content.
4. Consolidation
Many predicted that the market would consolidate around the few and the others would be slowly suffocated out of the market. It could be resellers, wholesalers, publishers whoever, we have been brought up to believe big is good and big is the only way. This logic is not wrong and will continue to work. The economies of scale and scope will always rule but rather than killing the rest they are now facilitating ‘small is beautiful’ and ‘small works’.
Digital provides a level playing field. This however doesn’t mean that this is open to all, nor that all can succeed. What is clear is that those in the middle are most at risk. They can’t compete with the big, but have their profile. They also can’t compete with small, as they often have too much baggage and aren’t able to move and adapt swiftly to change. The other challenges is that we often assume big is as we knew it yesterday, it isn’t and often now about the size of new entrants. The new big is Google, Adobe, Sony, Apple. In accepting this we must also accept that the new small and the new middle will also change.
We have yet to see full vertical consolidation. The problem is that organisations often find it difficult to collaborate and work a vertical all too often we see many trying to compete with those they should be partnering with and partnering with those who they should be competing with. The vertical world is not always content centric and may consist of a number of content providers, who together make the vertical offer.
Horizontal consolidation has been happening for some time. We look at our high streets and see fewer general chains. We look at music and see virtually none. The challenge here is that these were the stores that often shifted a wide range of volume and once gone are often replaced with ones that shift a narrow range of volume. The independent bookstore can survive but not as a multi publisher franchise that is supported by sale or return.
Consolidation is impacting the channel, the range, the print run, the rights acquired and developed and everything from the author to the reader. This genie is out of the bottle and not going back so we must adapt and change to survive.
Next we will look at the mystical publication date and the marketing focus.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Publishing in 2010: Part 1
When we look around the book industry today we see constant and accelerating change, which is often in conflict with previous changes, or the current practices. It could be viewed by some as the Wild West as we see retailer fighting retailer, publisher fighting publisher and new entrants fighting to dominate all not with content, but price, exclusive deals and even loss leading strategies. We find ourselves asking what the industry will look like in 3, 5, 10 years.
This current battleground may appear to be digital against physical, it may appear to be a grab for market share and it may appear all to be focused at the consumer end today, but the reality it is about and effects the total value chain from author to reader and the life cycle not just about front list but books and content in many forms and dating back forever.
The first thing we all must recognise that we have long advocated is that Digital Publishing is Publishing. Publishing may become Digital Publishing but isn’t today.
So what are the changes we need to watch and why? What may appear a single issue has the potential to change and challenge what we know and do today?
1. Pricing.
In another time and another industry we worked within one of the major retail operations and did so during a time of a price war. At the start there were six competitors all with different consumer propositions. At the end there were just two. What you quickly learnt was that price sensitivity only effected a small fraction of the 50,000 lines and that broad discounting effectively loss margin and was counterproductive. We had to move from discounting wars to everyday low prices and that is and was a challenge. The other thing we learnt was that the only winners were those with deep pockets and consumers who were not really that price sensitive in the first place!
The book industry does not have deep pockets. The consumer does not know the price of a particular book in a particular format and there are no real price points yet.
Pricing effects the margin up the chain and if pricing sensibility is not practiced then there will be many casualties. It isn’t just about independent bookstores, it threatens distributors, wholesalers, printers, publishers, agents and authors. Discount pricing in a many to many supply chain where the channel consists of thousands of publishers feeding thousands of resellers is a recipe for casualties in all areas, full stop. It will also lead to more not less waste as sales become more volatile and print runs smaller and more volatile.
2. Blockbuster and celebrity.
The booktrade has always worked on the 80/20 principle, if not the 90/10 one. Here the majority of the volume in terms of units and sales is made by the few. It is a fine balance that in fact allows for a broad and deep range which is effectively subsidised by the winners.
However, if you change that balance and do so too quickly you can screw it for all. Selling volume at lower margin works but works best if higher margin is achieved on the others and a greater volume of sales is made across the total range. We know the book market is effectively flat so the overall impact challenges the validity of those that once made it broad and deep.
We also have seen the recent backlash to the dumbing down, or the Katie Price manufactured hit. Books aren’t Baked Beans.
In part 2 we aim to look at the issues of content on demand and consolidation.
This current battleground may appear to be digital against physical, it may appear to be a grab for market share and it may appear all to be focused at the consumer end today, but the reality it is about and effects the total value chain from author to reader and the life cycle not just about front list but books and content in many forms and dating back forever.
The first thing we all must recognise that we have long advocated is that Digital Publishing is Publishing. Publishing may become Digital Publishing but isn’t today.
So what are the changes we need to watch and why? What may appear a single issue has the potential to change and challenge what we know and do today?
1. Pricing.
In another time and another industry we worked within one of the major retail operations and did so during a time of a price war. At the start there were six competitors all with different consumer propositions. At the end there were just two. What you quickly learnt was that price sensitivity only effected a small fraction of the 50,000 lines and that broad discounting effectively loss margin and was counterproductive. We had to move from discounting wars to everyday low prices and that is and was a challenge. The other thing we learnt was that the only winners were those with deep pockets and consumers who were not really that price sensitive in the first place!
The book industry does not have deep pockets. The consumer does not know the price of a particular book in a particular format and there are no real price points yet.
Pricing effects the margin up the chain and if pricing sensibility is not practiced then there will be many casualties. It isn’t just about independent bookstores, it threatens distributors, wholesalers, printers, publishers, agents and authors. Discount pricing in a many to many supply chain where the channel consists of thousands of publishers feeding thousands of resellers is a recipe for casualties in all areas, full stop. It will also lead to more not less waste as sales become more volatile and print runs smaller and more volatile.
2. Blockbuster and celebrity.
The booktrade has always worked on the 80/20 principle, if not the 90/10 one. Here the majority of the volume in terms of units and sales is made by the few. It is a fine balance that in fact allows for a broad and deep range which is effectively subsidised by the winners.
However, if you change that balance and do so too quickly you can screw it for all. Selling volume at lower margin works but works best if higher margin is achieved on the others and a greater volume of sales is made across the total range. We know the book market is effectively flat so the overall impact challenges the validity of those that once made it broad and deep.
We also have seen the recent backlash to the dumbing down, or the Katie Price manufactured hit. Books aren’t Baked Beans.
In part 2 we aim to look at the issues of content on demand and consolidation.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Real Time Digital Conferences
Today we received yet another email open call requesting conference papers to speak at a major conference this December. Ok 8 months isn’t far away and they have to organise marketing brochures and sell tickets and generally organise the show, but 8 months is a lifetime in the current climate. For example look back 8 months and look at some of the events that have happened in that period:
The Google Book Settlement was announced. It was a major bolt out of the blue and by the time this conference opens, we may know its fate. Some may say that the outcome is almost impossible to call today and whatever the outcome, it will impact digital publishing tomorrow.
iPhone applications have exploded to over 1 billion downloads. Who would have predicted a Kindle app or their purchase of Stanza, who were off many people’s radar 8 months ago? Who would have predicted that Barnes and Nobles would purchase Fictionwise? Mobile apps are not only new, but are reshaping how we consume information.
More digital ebook readers have surfaced along with Nintendo and of course the ubiquitous Smart-phones. However, when Apple announce their new wares in June, what will be the impact on netbooks, smartphones, apps and consumers?
Leading academic publishers such as Taylor and Francis have flipped from physical to digital marketing programmes with over 20,000 widgets and now have launched their digital inspection copy first programme. Marketing is changing with digital content now selling content.
Who would have predicted the demise of the newsprint and magazine empires? These sectors are grappling with changing business models driven by changing revenues and an unproven shift to online subscriptions all being further fuelled by the current economic climate.
The US digital impact on the UK and Europe grows. The imbalance of digitalisation programmes and a breakdown in territorial boundaries grow. The likes of Overdrive, with much US content, have now made significant inroads into UK trade and libraries.
Its only 9 months since Waterstones launched the Sony ebook reader in the UK and the country is still Kindle-less.
Finally, who would have predicted the economic climate change?
Asking potential speakers to submit presentations today, supported by 300-500 word outlines, conclusions and arguments, clear reference and supporting materials and three key learning points for delegates, sounds naïve. We believe it is important that paying conference delegates to such high profile events are given current, not old news.
The Google Book Settlement was announced. It was a major bolt out of the blue and by the time this conference opens, we may know its fate. Some may say that the outcome is almost impossible to call today and whatever the outcome, it will impact digital publishing tomorrow.
iPhone applications have exploded to over 1 billion downloads. Who would have predicted a Kindle app or their purchase of Stanza, who were off many people’s radar 8 months ago? Who would have predicted that Barnes and Nobles would purchase Fictionwise? Mobile apps are not only new, but are reshaping how we consume information.
More digital ebook readers have surfaced along with Nintendo and of course the ubiquitous Smart-phones. However, when Apple announce their new wares in June, what will be the impact on netbooks, smartphones, apps and consumers?
Leading academic publishers such as Taylor and Francis have flipped from physical to digital marketing programmes with over 20,000 widgets and now have launched their digital inspection copy first programme. Marketing is changing with digital content now selling content.
Who would have predicted the demise of the newsprint and magazine empires? These sectors are grappling with changing business models driven by changing revenues and an unproven shift to online subscriptions all being further fuelled by the current economic climate.
The US digital impact on the UK and Europe grows. The imbalance of digitalisation programmes and a breakdown in territorial boundaries grow. The likes of Overdrive, with much US content, have now made significant inroads into UK trade and libraries.
Its only 9 months since Waterstones launched the Sony ebook reader in the UK and the country is still Kindle-less.
Finally, who would have predicted the economic climate change?
Asking potential speakers to submit presentations today, supported by 300-500 word outlines, conclusions and arguments, clear reference and supporting materials and three key learning points for delegates, sounds naïve. We believe it is important that paying conference delegates to such high profile events are given current, not old news.
Monday, October 08, 2007
50 50, Ask the Audience, or Call a Friend?
On the eve of the Frankfurt Book Fair comes an interesting survey by them, that were published in today’s Bookseller.com. They surveyed 1,300 publishers, retailers, agents and libraries from around the world and came up with some interesting results. The results like so often lack clarity and relevance. 25% believe High street bookselling will not exist in 50 years, but that means 75% do. 4% believe publishers will be obsolete, but the term ‘publisher’ is very vague and can mean many things to many people. 11% thought the printed book will vanish, which means 89% again didn’t.
However, the most interesting results were over the size of change faced and who the dominant geographic force would be.
55.5%, thought that the industry would continue without any "catastrophic change". This majority obviously have not been watching the music industry’s value chain and previous business models fall apart. We are witnessing unprecedented changes in broadcasting, telephony, music, films, audio, education and all content and rights related industries, but still 55.5% believe books are different! It is not so much about the physical versus the digital book, it is about business model, relationships and in certain genre the opportunity to think outside the jacket in this digital age. Predicting who will thrive and who will survive is difficult and the only certainty is that there will be authors and readers and all between are up for grabs.
36% thought Europe would dominate the industry in the next decade whilst 32% said America and 26% China. The question one has to ask is, where was China ten years ago or even five years ago? What is relevant, is not who will dominate, but the impact of the shift towards true globalisation and potentially global ownership. Will China and emerging economies tolerate external ownership, or step up to take ownership themselves? China and India are clearly in the ascendancy. What happens when we also finally accept that territorial rights become unmanageable and global pricing starts to bite. The final interesting point here is one many have long known and that is the recognition that there is a publishing market outside the US.
However, the most interesting results were over the size of change faced and who the dominant geographic force would be.
55.5%, thought that the industry would continue without any "catastrophic change". This majority obviously have not been watching the music industry’s value chain and previous business models fall apart. We are witnessing unprecedented changes in broadcasting, telephony, music, films, audio, education and all content and rights related industries, but still 55.5% believe books are different! It is not so much about the physical versus the digital book, it is about business model, relationships and in certain genre the opportunity to think outside the jacket in this digital age. Predicting who will thrive and who will survive is difficult and the only certainty is that there will be authors and readers and all between are up for grabs.
36% thought Europe would dominate the industry in the next decade whilst 32% said America and 26% China. The question one has to ask is, where was China ten years ago or even five years ago? What is relevant, is not who will dominate, but the impact of the shift towards true globalisation and potentially global ownership. Will China and emerging economies tolerate external ownership, or step up to take ownership themselves? China and India are clearly in the ascendancy. What happens when we also finally accept that territorial rights become unmanageable and global pricing starts to bite. The final interesting point here is one many have long known and that is the recognition that there is a publishing market outside the US.
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